Energinet's 2033 report: What it says, and what it means for industrial operators now

Denmark's electricity grid is undergoing a fundamental change. Planning material from Energinet, Denmark's national transmission system operator, points to a rising need to secure electricity supply as production and consumption patterns shift. For manufacturing companies and heavy electricity users, that means taking a more active view of their own energy supply.

This article walks through the central conclusions in the latest projection of electricity supply security out to 2033. We look at the underlying drivers of rising pressure on the grid, and we translate the system-level figures into specific consequences for industrial operations. The aim is to give decision-makers a factual basis for assessing whether local energy storage in the form of an industrial BESS (Battery Energy Storage System) is relevant for the company's future operations.

The projection toward 2033

Each year, an assessment of Danish electricity supply security is prepared with a ten-year horizon. In the current assessment, the target year is 2033. The report serves as a planning basis for the investments the electricity system needs, and it gives a data-driven view of the challenges the grid faces.

A key figure in the projection is the expectation for uptime. The assessment uses a planning target of 36 interruption minutes in 2033, which corresponds to having power available at the outlet 99.993 percent of the time on average.

Although 99.993 percent sounds like a very high level of security, the average covers local and regional variation. For manufacturing companies with continuous processes, even short outages can require planned handling of production and a controlled shutdown. The projection indicates a generally rising risk of power shortage over time, which makes the average figure an important indicator of underlying system stability.

What is driving the rising risk?

The deterioration in supply security cannot be attributed to a single factor. Energinet's projection describes several concurrent changes in the Danish electricity system and in how it interacts with the wider Nordic and European market.

Less controllable capacity: Historically, the electricity system was based on large central power plants that could ramp production up and down as needed. As the green transition progresses, many of these plants are being phased out. That means a decline in controllable thermal capacity, which removes part of the traditional buffer in the system.

Rising electricity consumption: At the same time as controllable generation falls, total electricity consumption rises significantly. Electrification of industry, transport, and heating creates a higher draw on the grid. The combination of lower controllable generation and higher consumption narrows the margin that keeps the grid stable during peak periods.

Increased load on the distribution grid: The challenges are not only at the overall transmission level. Locally in the distribution grid, interruption minutes are expected to rise from 26 to 29 minutes. The increase is linked to higher load in the networks. When more companies in an industrial area expand their electrical consumption at the same time, local bottlenecks arise in the cables and transformers that supply the area.

From system risk to business consequence

When these system figures are translated into industrial reality, the timeline becomes especially relevant. The projection points to rising pressure in the electricity market and in real-time operation. A critical conclusion is that from 2027 onward, balancing reserves alone are no longer enough to avoid controlled interruptions.

A controlled interruption is an intervention in which the system operator deliberately cuts power to selected areas for a limited period to relieve imbalances in the grid. For a company, that means operations can be affected by a planned interruption, even though the timing and scope are managed centrally.

For a manufacturing company, this creates a set of specific challenges: Operational interruption: Even short outages can disrupt production and require a controlled shutdown or restart of processes. Process stability: Voltage dips and interruptions can affect sensitive equipment and create a need for subsequent process checks. Planning need: The more dependent operations are on stable power, the more important it becomes to have a plan for backup and controlled shutdown.

Solutions at system level and at local level

To address the rising risk, the projection points to the need for large investments and new measures to maintain security. At system level, that means securing more system services, expanding balancing reserves, establishing new controllable generation capacity, and creating incentives for reduced consumption in stressed periods.

These measures are necessary to secure the collective grid, but they take time to implement and do not guarantee against local outages. For the individual company, it is therefore relevant to look at local solutions.

An industrial BESS is often placed behind the company's own electricity meter. It functions as a local energy buffer. When the grid is stable, the battery is charged so it can support selected critical processes during short outages, if the system is sized and controlled for that purpose. The actual response time and protection depend on how the system is sized and on the associated controls. As NREL describes, battery storage can be used for both backup power when the grid goes down and load shifting, but the effect depends on the specific installation.

In some cases it can also be used to reduce peak load and peak demand, often referred to as load shaving or peak shaving. In practice this is a possibility, not a guaranteed effect, and it depends on the system's design, controls, and the local operating strategy.

Why supply security is a management responsibility

Previously, power supply was primarily a technical matter handled by the operations manager. With the outlook of a more volatile electricity grid toward 2033, supply security moves up as a strategic management responsibility.

When the data show that balancing reserves may fall short from 2027, it changes the risk profile for the company's core business. That can make planning for backup and operational interruptions more relevant, but the actual effect on production depends on the company's processes and equipment.

Companies that engage with these data can plan more effectively for expected fluctuations and interruptions. Local storage capacity does not make the company independent of the collective grid, but in some cases it can give more control over operations while grid expansion catches up. At the same time, a BESS can in some cases be used for peak shaving and to support resilience functions, depending on the system's design and the local framework.

Establishing an industrial BESS typically requires planning, sizing, and approvals. That means there is lead time from decision to commissioning.

Limitations and assumptions

Although a BESS can be a relevant part of preparedness against an unstable electricity grid, there are important limitations to understand.

Capacity and duration: A battery system contains a finite amount of energy. It can be effective for handling short interruptions and for shaving consumption peaks over a few hours, depending on how the system is sized. As NREL describes, battery storage can both provide backup power when the grid goes down and be used to shift or shave load; but if the electricity grid is down for a full day, a standard BESS will run out of energy unless it is coupled with very large local generation, for example a large solar PV plant.

Correct sizing: Protection depends entirely on the system being sized correctly relative to the company's critical load. If the system's power (kW) is too small to cover the plant's starting current, the system will disconnect to protect itself during a power outage.

Economic prioritisation: Sizing a battery to run an entire factory for many hours is often a very heavy investment. Most companies therefore size the system to shut production down in a controlled way, or to keep only the most critical systems running until power returns.

ZynexGroup's approach to site assessment

If a site is to be assessed in more detail, we start from specific data. We analyse the site's load profile, critical consumption, and operational requirements to assess whether local storage can support the company's needs.

Read more about site assessment here: https://zynexgroup.com/da/contact